This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

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SRGTD
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Re: This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

Post by SRGTD »

Stuart_Rendall wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:49 pm
monkeyhanger wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:28 pm That bubble will burst as soon as the chip supply is no longer affecting new car production.- you'd be nuts to pay prices approaching discounted new car for a 1 or 2 year old example, and when you factor in the dealers margin on top of that Motorway.co.uk price, we're just about there. My (former) 2 year old white GTI+ is up for sale at £19495 by the fella that bought it, that's just £1200 less than I paid for it brand new.

Anyone looking to change soon would be best securing a fixed p/x value now against thir next new car that could be 6 months away from being built. If the bubble bursts in the meantime, you've got your secured p/x value against your new car.
Not including my deposit I will have made money now if I sell my car. Looking into a new Golf R or the Merc A45s since PCP on those are the same or less than a used (decent spec) Mk7.5 R
With a new factory order for a mk8 Golf R, forum members over on vwroc.com are currently talking about lead times of around 8 months, so there’s a good chance the used car value bubble will have burst by then. Would a dealer be prepared to fix a part exchange value for 8 months in the current used car market conditions? Maybe, but it’ll probably be at a figure that’ll reflect a return to more normal market conditions. More likely, they’d probably delay giving a p/ex value until nearer delivery date of the new car because of the uncertainty of future used car values. I expect Mercedes (or other car manufacturers) to adopt a similar approach to part exchange values too if lead times on a new A45 are similar to the Golf R.

For anyone not fussy about spec or colour, finding an in-stock car might be an option. That way you could take advantage of the current high used car values for the car to be disposed of. However, I dare say dealer stocks of new unregistered Golf R’s and Merc A45s are low or non existent, and dealers probably won’t be willing to offer significant discounts off in-stock vehicles due to shortage of supply of new cars.

Selling now and either being without a car or buying an old wreck until the new car arrives might be an option.

Decisions and dilemmas………..🤔
Stuart_Rendall
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Re: This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

Post by Stuart_Rendall »

monkeyhanger wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:56 am
Stuart_Rendall wrote: Sat Jun 19, 2021 9:49 pm
Not including my deposit I will have made money now if I sell my car.
That's some proper man maths justification right there! :lol:
Gotta justify things to the girlfriend. Helps she is horrific at maths :lol:
Stuart_Rendall
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Re: This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

Post by Stuart_Rendall »

SRGTD wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 10:35 am With a new factory order for a mk8 Golf R, forum members over on vwroc.com are currently talking about lead times of around 8 months, so there’s a good chance the used car value bubble will have burst by then. Would a dealer be prepared to fix a part exchange value for 8 months in the current used car market conditions? Maybe, but it’ll probably be at a figure that’ll reflect a return to more normal market conditions. More likely, they’d probably delay giving a p/ex value until nearer delivery date of the new car because of the uncertainty of future used car values. I expect Mercedes (or other car manufacturers) to adopt a similar approach to part exchange values too if lead times on a new A45 are similar to the Golf R.

For anyone not fussy about spec or colour, finding an in-stock car might be an option. That way you could take advantage of the current high used car values for the car to be disposed of. However, I dare say dealer stocks of new unregistered Golf R’s and Merc A45s are low or non existent, and dealers probably won’t be willing to offer significant discounts off in-stock vehicles due to shortage of supply of new cars.

Selling now and either being without a car or buying an old wreck until the new car arrives might be an option.

Decisions and dilemmas………..🤔
8 MONTHS??? I was at the dealer about 2 weeks ago and my sales person gave me a number much lower than that, closer to 3 months. I wouldn't bother buying a used, nearly new, or unregistered mk8 Golf R either since they are listing them well over list at the dealer and if I get one I want a good PCP deal. Had a quote from my dealer for ~£460 using my car as a deposit, which seems fair. And in terms of A45s they've been hit hard by the chip shortage.
SRGTD
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Re: This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

Post by SRGTD »

Stuart_Rendall wrote: Sun Jun 20, 2021 11:05 am 8 MONTHS??? I was at the dealer about 2 weeks ago and my sales person gave me a number much lower than that, closer to 3 months. I wouldn't bother buying a used, nearly new, or unregistered mk8 Golf R either since they are listing them well over list at the dealer and if I get one I want a good PCP deal. Had a quote from my dealer for ~£460 using my car as a deposit, which seems fair. And in terms of A45s they've been hit hard by the chip shortage.
Three months sounds more like normal lead times when there aren’t any supply issues. However, with the current worldwide shortage of computer chips affecting most car manufacturers, including VW, normal productivity has been adversely impacted (temporary factory shut-downs and / or reduced working hours and reduced output). IMO that would almost certainly increase lead times beyond the norm, and shortages in supply of new cars is the main factor underlying the current high used car values - dealers need stock to sell, so are willing to pay over the odds for the ‘right’ cars. In my experience, salespeople will often tell you what they think you want to hear, so it might be worth phoning around a few dealers and asking what the current lead times are to see how realistic the indicated three months lead time is.

It’s possible that the dealer you’ve been speaking to already has an R on order that was intended for use as the dealership demonstrator vehicle or for use by one of the dealership salespeople. Alternatively, the dealership may have had a cancelled order in the system. If so, and if that car in the system doesn’t yet have a confirmed build week, then it may be possible to allocate that car to you and alter the build spec to your requirements - hence the indicated three month lead time. Otherwise, as stated above, it’d be worth checking the lead time position with a selection of other dealers, as I suspect a three month lead time for a new factory order in the current climate is rather optimistic.
monkeyhanger
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Re: This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

Post by monkeyhanger »

If you're prepared to travel, the big dealership groups are most likely to have stock or incoming unallocated orders to access, and most likely tomatch or beat drivethedeal - I'd check out Listers, Heritage or regional Lookers groups. Less likely to get an amazing p/x price the better the new car price, so get rid via motorway.co.uk.
Stuart_Rendall
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Re: This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

Post by Stuart_Rendall »

Woken up this morning to another increased offer via motorway. Offers are now in excess of £19,000. At what point will the used car prices peak?
monkeyhanger
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Re: This'll make Andy's jaw drop...

Post by monkeyhanger »

Stuart_Rendall wrote: Mon Jun 21, 2021 7:55 am Woken up this morning to another increased offer via motorway. Offers are now in excess of £19,000. At what point will the used car prices peak?
Whan a 1 year old used car is the same price as a new car with a healthy discount. I honestly think we're about there. If there's nothing at all to replace (tyres all above 3mm) and no service due, they're going to want to make 15% on your car, so they'll be trying to sell it for £21500-22000. Haven't checked, but I bet you could get a new one for that on DTD if they were listing Polos right now.
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